Mark February on your strike calendar

The fate of the next television season rides on timingEven with the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers returning to the table next Monday, media people are not expecting negotiators to bring an end to the writers strike anytime soon, most likely not until after the first of the year.As it turns out, just when after Jan. 1 is all important.The writers strike has already hurt this season. Come January, it would begin to threaten next season. Whether it does or not is all about timing.An agreement between writers and the studios by mid-January would cause only minor disruptions. But if the strike were to go into February, it could cause the networks all sorts of woes.Everything hinges on the writing of the pilots of shows for the new season. Though networks are developing shows through the year, the pilot writing season typically begins in late fall and picks up in January.A January end to the strike would mean the pilot process would pick back up, and any lost time could be made up. Returning shows would be back in production in time for the fall season.But kick this all forward just one month and everything changes. “If it goes beyond January, it gets into development season, which is where things will be affected,” says Ed Gentner, senior vice president and group director of video investment and activation at MediaVest.That then throws off the timing not only of the writing and production of shows but the entire upfront process in which the networks present their schedules to media buyers and eventually negotiate ad buys for the coming season.There's a lot of money at stake. Last spring, advertisers spent $9.3 billion booking time for this fall.“The networks typically present their development ideas to advertisers in March," Gentner says. "If nothing’s being developed, there’s nothing to present, which could delay the upfront process.”That could push the upfront back, perhaps well into the summer.If the strike were to go longer than March, the networks would face a whole new set of problems,It would be too late to get new shows into production in time for the fall, which would force the networks to load up their fall schedules with returning shows, including shows that did so poorly that they were up for cancellation.That would mean two things. First, the networks would have fall lineups that would deliver poorer ratings. But second, media buyers, also anticipating lower ratings, would gain leverage in the upfront market. They'd be able to demand and get better pricing, That would mean a real hit for the networks.

Source: http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Television_44/Mark_February_on_your_strike_calendar.asp